How do you communicate model uncertainty to an executive who wants a single number?

Give the number, then give the range, then say what decision each end of the range implies. Executives are not allergic to uncertainty, they are allergic to unusable answers. Framing it as forecast 12 percent growth, plausible range 8 to 17, and here is what we would do differently at each end, turns uncertainty into something actionable rather than a hedge.

I lead with the number, because refusing to give one reads as evasion and they will just get it from someone less careful. Then I attach the range in the same breath. Something like: our best estimate is 12 percent growth next quarter, and the plausible range is 8 to 17. The part that makes it land is what comes next, which is tying the ends to decisions. At 8 percent we hold headcount; at 17 we need two more support staff hired by March. Now the uncertainty is not a caveat, it is a contingency plan, and that is a conversation executives are comfortable having. I also say what drives the width. If the range is wide because we only have six months of history on a new segment, I say so, and I say what would narrow it and roughly what getting there would cost. What I try never to do is present a single number as if it were certain, because the first time reality lands outside your implied precision, everything you say afterward gets discounted.